The Sweeney Model

My predictions

By Hugh Sweeney

The forecasts on the rest of this site come from the model: the same rules applied to every race, with no personal judgment. This page is the opposite. These are my own calls, race by race, made after reading the polls, the model and everything else.

They're kept separate from the model on purpose, and they're straight picks, not probabilities. Each version is posted with its date and never edited afterwards, so you can see exactly what I called and when. After the election, I'll score every pick and show how my calls stacked up against the model's.

Coming soon

My first set of picks will be posted just before launch, with a final version on the morning of Election Day, November 3.

In the meantime, the model's forecasts for the Senate, the House and governors are updated three times a day.