Who will control Congress?
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Each dot is one of our simulated elections. Tap any dot to see how that version of November turns out.
What's driving the forecast?
Turn pieces of the model on and off to see what changes. "Generic candidates" treats both candidates as average; "equal money" treats both as raising the same amount.
The Senate map
35 seats are up this year. Hover over a state for the race, or click it for everything we know.
Closest Senate races
The House
All 435 seats, lined up from most Democratic on the left to most Republican on the right. The dashed line marks seat 218.
Closest House races
How many seats?
How often each seat total came up across our 20,000 simulations.
Senate: Democratic and independent seats
House: Democratic seats
The forecast over time
Chance Democrats control each chamber, updated three times a day.
What do the markets think?
Election news
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